The shift shows up clearly in the trade data, with both crude and refined avocado oil shipments from Kenya to the EU rising sharply last year, according to Eurostat figures accessed via Cropli.

Fresh-avocado trade went the other way. EU imports from Kenya under HS code 080440 fell 20 per cent in value to €148.4mn last year, the same Eurostat data show.

Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping closed the Suez Canal to most commercial traffic from late 2023, forcing reefer vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and roughly doubling transit times to Europe. Per-container costs rose to about $3,000 from $1,500–$2,000 before the crisis, according to Kenyan sources.

Avocado oil offered a way around the problem. Unlike fresh fruit, which ripens in transit and arrives bruised or spoiled after a longer voyage, the oil has a shelf life measured in months and does not require refrigerated containers — making the longer Cape route commercially viable.

The Red Sea shipping disruptions "resulted in delayed delivery periods, impacting the quality on arrival at the destination market and resulting in losses" on fresh product, said Kenyan agri-business Sasini in its annual report. Its fresh avocado shipments fell from 71 containers in 2024 to just 22 in 2025.

Earlier this month, Sasini announced plans to sell an avocado packing plant in Nairobi City County, according to local media reports.

USDA figures show that Kenya's avocado oil production tripled last year to 10,188 tonnes. This helped boost the EU's crude oil imports from Kenya to 10,178 tonnes, while refined avocado oil entering the EU from Kenya rose 65 percent to 7,443 tonnes.

Kenya is the world's sixth-largest avocado producer and Africa's biggest, with a record 694,000-tonne harvest in 2025. The push to press avocado oil comes as demand for the product increases in other key markets, too.

In the United States, imports under HS 151590 — the customs line that includes avocado oil — shipments from Kenya jumped to $36.8mn from $5.6mn in 2024. Mexico is the US' largest supplier, supplying oils worth $388mn under the HS code.

Despite challenges in the fresh market, USDA forecasts Kenya's 2026 crop at a further record 727,000 tonnes and exports rising 7.4 percent to 130,000 tonnes. The growth follows on the back of "yield recovery in key production zones" and the "opening of new markets", such as China and India, according to the USDA.

The increased supply may find its way into an even greater share of avocado oil production.

Two months into 2026, EU fresh avocado imports from Kenya continue to fall; imports by the EU under HS 080440 ran at 358 tonnes in January and February, against 921 tonnes a year earlier.

By comparison, imports under HS 151590, the line that includes avocado oil, climbed 83 per cent in value year-on-year to €12.5mn over the same two months.

Kenya's Agriculture and Food Authority opened the 2026 fresh-avocado season on April 2; a separate avocado-oil processing season opens on April 30.