The Washington State Tree Fruit Association scrapped its 1 August forecast and its October and November storage estimates in June, telling Capital Press the projections no longer captured how much fruit was harvested and sold. In an oversupplied market, growers increasingly leave grade-standard apples on the tree when prices fail to cover picking costs.

Growers believe inflated figures harmed price negotiations, and members have had to argue with retailers that the harvest would not be as large as expected, said Jon DeVaney, the association's president. The 2025 crop was first projected at 142 million 40-lb boxes; by 1 December the estimate had come down to 131.5 million. Weekly shipment reports will continue.

"Economic factors are playing a greater and greater role in what fruit is actually brought to market," DeVaney said.

The withdrawal has reached this year's national production forecast. In its 2026/27 Industry Outlook, released on 23 August, the US Apple Association said it "will not publish a final adjusted national crop estimate" because not all regions were taking part in the adjustment process. The absence of an adjusted number, it added, "should not be interpreted as agreement with or validation of USDA's estimate."

At the group's Outlook conference in Chicago three days earlier, Washington's representatives had declined to refine the US Department of Agriculture's figure of about 176 million bushels for the state, down 2 per cent on the year. USApple's national forecast, built on the USDA survey, put the 2026/27 crop at 263 million bushels, down 7 per cent.

"The story this season really varies by region," Chris Gerlach, USApple's vice-president of insights and analytics and the author of the Outlook report, said in the release. "Overall we're encouraged by the crop we're seeing across much of the country," he said. New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia and California all filed adjusted figures. Michigan, the third-largest producing state, told USApple that USDA's estimate was too low but supplied no number of its own. Washington, the largest, declined to refine the figure at all.

That leaves a single Washington fresh-market estimate in circulation, and it belongs to a marketer, not the industry. Don Roper of Honeybear Marketing told FreshPlaza on 17 August that the state's 2026 crop was shaping up at around 120 million to 125 million 40-lb boxes, down about 8 per cent from the roughly 132 million boxes picked in 2025. The two are not directly comparable: USDA counts fresh and processing fruit in 42-lb bushels, the trade estimate only fresh fruit in 40-lb boxes.

The market is repricing in the meantime. Fresh apple holdings in storage on 1 August stood at 16 million bushels, 13 per cent below a year earlier, according to USApple's monthly survey. Processing stocks ran 11 per cent higher. Michigan did not report its August holdings, USApple said, so the total is incomplete. Shipping-point prices for Red Delicious over the first half of August were up 49 per cent on the year and Gala 19 per cent, RaboResearch said.

Part of that firmness predates the harvest entirely. US fresh apple export values averaged about $1.40 a kilogram over the first half of 2026, above the $1.21 to $1.28 range of the previous four years, according to US Census trade data accessed via Cropli. The same data show export tonnage softening 8 to 9 per cent in April and May. Two markets support the export trade: over the 2025/26 crop year Mexico took 39 per cent of US apple exports and Canada 19 per cent, together worth nearly $650m, USApple said.

The industry has spent a year arguing that US apple production must shrink. At the tree fruit association's annual meeting in December, West Mathison, chief executive of Stemilt, said Washington "must get below 125 million fresh boxes — by choice or by force." He called the state's glut "a supply problem, and a supply problem is a management problem." Newer varieties need about $35 a box to break even, he said, against "value prices" near $25 for the traditional export apples. The only 2026 estimate now on the table — 120 million to 125 million — sits at his threshold.

USDA reported that Washington pulled out about 3,000 acres this year. Nationally, more than 4,000 acres have come out since 2022, after the industry added over 26,000 acres — about 10 per cent — between 2012 and 2023. Mathison had told the December meeting the cuts were still ahead of the state: "We haven't seen the big acreage removal yet."

Some businesses are already struggling. Brewster Heights Packing and Orchards, the flagship of Gebbers Farms and an employer of more than 3,700 people, filed for Chapter 11 in early June. A bankruptcy judge approved a $231.3m stalking-horse bid from Legendary Fruit of Chelan in early August, covering some 10,000 acres of apples and cherries in north-central Washington and setting a floor for rival offers. Bids are due on 27 August.

Washington's spring frost hasn't been a significant factor, FreshPlaza reported, and the risk it named for the rest of the season was wildfire smoke, whose effect on the overall colour and size of the crop load would be determined in the weeks to come. The frost was not uniform, though: USDA has designated Okanogan County a primary natural disaster area for freeze and frost damage, opening emergency loans to growers there and in seven neighbouring counties, Chelan, Douglas and Grant among them.

Fourteen large fires were still burning across 581,728 acres of Washington on 24 August, the National Interagency Fire Center reported, and the two biggest are in apple counties: the Sinlahekin fire west of Tonasket in Okanogan County, at 155,209 acres, and the Little Giant fire north-west of Leavenworth, at 146,037 acres and, KPQ reported, the largest on record in Chelan County, although both are burning rangeland not orchards.

Growers, Roper said, were still hoping for warmth: the volume reduction "might lead to better fruit sizing and a more balanced crop, assuming we get the proper heat units during the remainder of the season."

The Washington state growers association's first official crop report is now due on 1 December.